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Position:Crude oil prices

Global oil was supplied 2007 constrictive!

From;    Author:Stand originally
In recent years, of oil price rising ceaselessly is the drive that gets Chinese demand growth on partial level. The data of Chinese government and IEA is relatively conservative to what demand always estimates petrolic, this makes of pair of petroleum demand edit go up ceaselessly tone. We think Chinese petroleum demand will increase 500 thousand pails 2007 / day, growth rate is 7.2% , 30% what hold global oil growth, this also is to make sex of oil price bigotry live the matter that does not leave high.

To balance of global petroleum supply and demand character, forecast Chinese petroleum demand to become quite important. Analysts insist consistently to point out in these 10 years of a Chinese demand rising is the mainest reason with global commodity constrictive market. However, the growth of Chinese demand is to show downtrend actually, come from 1985 1999 year all the growth of 6.7% dropped the of 6.6% growth rate between 2006. Although be faced with every year,mix in great quantities uncertain wave motion, however demand will still maintain persistent growth. 1990, the share that China holds world petroleum total demand is only 4.0% , but to the end of 2007, achieve the likelihood 8.7% . Look from sheer quantity, in 20 centuries 90 time, chinese demand is average year all grow it is 220 thousand pails / day, next 10 years, this number had become 360 thousand pails / day, begin from 2002, had achieved 420 thousand pails / day.

Although Chinese demand year all grow achieved 7% , but domestic oil furnishs however backwater not before, these 10 years year all grow to be only 2% . 2000, the gap that need inside and produces 1.5 million pails / day; Difference turned into 2006 3.2 million pails / day. 2007, we assume Chinese petroleum demand increases 500 thousand pails / day, growth rate is 7.2% , because increment of oil extraction project is lesser this year,cause production growth and keep balance before, accordingly, the fall that market demand needs inside home can offset output falls more or less brought influence. Oil growth basically included diesel oil 2007 (180 thousand pails / day) , benzine (130 thousand pails / day) , naphtha (85 thousand pails / day) . As a result of these phyletic driving growth, gap of petroleum demand supply is likely 2007 expand into 3.75 million pails / day, this is meant export petrolic to China main country, include Angola, sand spy, Iran, Oman and Sudan, must increase 500 thousand pails / the day will balance this one demand.

We think to be in the process that forecasts global petroleum demand to increase an amount, the growth of Chinese oil market is very main factor. If petroleum demand rises and fall errant or as a result of the transparency that lacks data forecast hard, manufacturing business can raise oil price in order to achieve higher return rate. Be in China, originate the supply demand of the government and company and data of oil refining yield are hard of be convinced, and fluctuate every year comparative big.
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